Meta Platforms, Inc. META

Revenue Intelligence Report • 61 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Meta Platforms, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $60.8B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $272B across the next four quarters (+19.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 2.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$271.9B
+19.1% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-0.96x
SG&A Elasticity
-2.31x
Training Fit
4.8% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $59.33B vs the actual $60.80B — an error of 2.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

META Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $59.33B $60.80B $52.60B–$66.93B +24.9% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $60.31B $50.86B–$71.52B +17.7%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $69.26B $56.22B–$85.33B +15.6%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $70.12B $55.10B–$89.22B +24.5%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $72.21B $55.15B–$94.53B +18.8%
🎙️

Latest Earnings Call

Q4 2025
Hey everyone. Thanks for joining us.

We ended 2025 strong with more than 3.5 billion people now using at least one of our apps every day. That includes more than 2 billion daily actives each on Facebook and WhatsApp -- and just shy of that on Instagram. Our business also performed very well thanks to record-breaking holiday demand and AI-driven performance gains. We are now seeing …

View full transcript → 27 sections · 9851 words

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Meta Platforms, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.963 -3.7% -3.7% below trend 14
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9949 -0.5% In line with trend 14
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.022 +2.2% In line with trend 14
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0284 +2.8% In line with trend 14

Spending and Revenue

META Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 61 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.1579x • R&D elasticity: 0.1549x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 61 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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