What is NWS's forecasted revenue?

News Corporation is forecasted to generate $9.40B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +4.1% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the NWS revenue forecast model?

The model has 6.8% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $2.2B versus the actual $2.3B.

News Corporation NWS

Revenue Intelligence Report • 56 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

News Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $2.3B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $9.4B across the next four quarters (+4.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 5.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$9.40B

+4.1% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$2.99 per $1

Training Fit

6.8% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q4 FY2026): The model predicted $2.21B vs the actual $2.34B — an error of 5.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: News Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$2.21B	$2.34B	$1.89B–$2.54B	+5.0%	✓ In range
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2026-09-30	$2.30B		$1.84B–$2.76B	+7.2%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2026-12-31	$2.37B		$1.81B–$2.94B	+0.5%
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$2.37B		$1.72B–$3.02B	+8.3%
Q4 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$2.36B		$1.63B–$3.09B	+0.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture News Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jul–Sep)	0.9854	-1.5%	In line with trend	13
FQ2 (Oct–Dec)	1.0252	+2.5%	In line with trend	13
FQ3 (Jan–Mar)	0.9801	-2.0%	In line with trend	13
FQ4 (Apr–Jun)	1.014	+1.4%	In line with trend	12

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 56 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 2.6964x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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