Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. LYV

Revenue Intelligence Report • 66 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $7.7B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $23.3B across the next four quarters (-11.4% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 24.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$23.3B
-11.4% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.15x
Training Fit
31.0% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $5.82B vs the actual $7.67B — an error of 24.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($7.7B) came in 24% above the spending-based forecast ($5.8B). This suggests that Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

LYV Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $5.82B $7.67B $2.84B–$11.90B -17.0% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $6.36B $2.31B–$17.48B -25.2%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $8.46B $2.45B–$29.19B +33.9%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $3.87B $926.0M–$16.19B +2.1%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $4.60B $928.9M–$22.77B -40.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.1757 +17.6% +17.6% above trend 16
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.2142 +21.4% +21.4% above trend 15
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.1159 +11.6% +11.6% above trend 15
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.8295 -17.1% -17.1% below trend 15

Spending and Revenue

LYV Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 66 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 3.0018x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 66 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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