Omnicom Group Inc. OMC

Revenue Intelligence Report • 45 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-03-31

Omnicom Group Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $6.2B for the period ending 2026-03-31. The model projects $23.3B across the next four quarters (+17.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 32.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-03-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$23.3B
+17.6% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$9.88 per $1
Training Fit
3.5% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2026): The model predicted $4.22B vs the actual $6.24B — an error of 32.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Omnicom Group Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($6.2B) came in 32% above the spending-based forecast ($4.2B). This suggests that Omnicom Group Inc.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

OMC Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2026
Period end 2026-03-31		 $4.22B $6.24B $3.88B–$4.56B +14.4% ✗ Outside range
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $5.52B $5.04B–$5.99B +37.4%
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $4.67B $4.09B–$5.26B +15.8%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $7.72B $7.04B–$8.39B +39.5%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $5.42B $4.66B–$6.17B -13.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Omnicom Group Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.97 -3.0% -3.0% below trend 10
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0081 +0.8% In line with trend 10
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0138 +1.4% In line with trend 10
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0154 +1.5% In line with trend 10

Spending and Revenue

OMC Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 45 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.2646x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 45 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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