What is FSLR's forecasted revenue?

First Solar, Inc. is forecasted to generate $5.20B in FY revenue, representing -0.3% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the FSLR revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 26.4% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.2B versus the actual $1.7B.

First Solar, Inc. FSLR

Revenue Intelligence Report • 64 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is most sensitive to R&D spending, with a 1% increase in R&D driving about a 0.68% rise in revenue, while SG&A has a near-flat to slightly negative effect of about -0.02% per 1% SG&A increase. The model’s log-log framework implies meaningful ROI on R&D, but predictive accuracy is limited, with a 26.4% MAPE and a holdout forecast error where a predicted $1.2B undershot actual revenue of $1.7B by 31.5%. The FY revenue forecast is about $5.2B, down 0.3% year over year, signaling only modest top-line momentum unless R&D-driven demand accelerates. Investors should focus on the ROI of R&D as a growth driver, weigh the forecast uncertainty against potential upside from targeted innovation, and view SG&A containment as offering limited relief given its minimal revenue impact.

Investment Thesis

At 26.4% MAPE, the model captures First Solar, Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. R&D investment shows a 0.68x multiplier — each 1% increase in R&D spend is associated with a 0.68% revenue increase, signaling strong innovation-to-revenue conversion.

Next FY Revenue

$5.20B

-0.3% YoY

R&D Elasticity

0.68x

SG&A Elasticity

-0.02x

Model Accuracy

26.4% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.2B vs the actual $1.7B — an error of 31.5%.

⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($1.7B) came in 31% above the spending-based forecast ($1.2B). This suggests that First Solar, Inc.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$1.2B	$1.7B	$0.6B – $2.1B	-23.8%	✓ In range
Q1 2026	$1.3B		$0.5B – $3.0B	+48.5%
Q2 2026	$1.3B		$0.4B – $3.7B	+16.5%
Q3 2026	$1.3B		$0.4B – $4.6B	-17.5%
Q4 2026	$1.4B		$0.3B – $5.4B	-19.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture First Solar, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.1479	+14.8%	+14.8% above trend	16
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.1873	+18.7%	+18.7% above trend	16
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.8845	-11.5%	-11.5% below trend	15
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	0.9367	-6.3%	-6.3% below trend	16

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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