Intel Corporation INTC

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Intel Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $58B, a +9.4% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.08x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 4.9% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (4.9% MAPE), suggesting Intel Corporation's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D spending currently shows a negative elasticity (-0.99x), which can indicate heavy investment in long-cycle initiatives not yet reflected in revenue. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.08x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$57.8B
+9.4% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-0.99x
SG&A Elasticity
0.08x
Model Accuracy
4.9% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $14B vs the actual $14B — an error of 4.0%.
⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Revenue Forecast

INTC Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $14B $14B $13B – $16B -0.3% ✓ In range
Q1 2026 $14B $12B – $17B +10.4%
Q2 2026 $14B $11B – $17B +9.7%
Q3 2026 $15B $11B – $19B +7.2%
Q4 2026 $15B $12B – $20B +10.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Intel Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.0066 +0.7% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 1.0142 +1.4% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.9426 -5.7% -5.7% below trend 16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.0104 +1.0% In line with trend 17

How Spending Drives Revenue

INTC Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (log-log) with 70 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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