Intuitive Surgical, Inc. ISRG

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Quarterly revenue came in at $2.866 billion, with the model showing revenue is driven by SG&A and R&D spending; SG&A has the stronger elasticity at about 0.94 per 1% spend while R&D is about 0.59. In practical terms, each 1% increase in SG&A adds roughly 0.94% to revenue and each 1% increase in R&D adds roughly 0.59% to revenue, indicating revenue growth is sublinear to these cost investments. The model’s overall accuracy is 5.2% MAPE, and a holdout test predicted $2.4B versus actual $2.9B (about a 15% error), signaling some forecasting risk in edge periods. The full-year revenue forecast is $9.9B, down 1.6% year over year, suggesting near-term revenue softness even as SG&A and R&D investments are expected to persist.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.2% MAPE), suggesting Intuitive Surgical, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D investment shows a 0.59x multiplier — each 1% increase in R&D spend is associated with a 0.59% revenue increase, signaling strong innovation-to-revenue conversion. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.94x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$9.91B
-1.6% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.59x
SG&A Elasticity
0.94x
Model Accuracy
5.2% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.4B vs the actual $2.9B — an error of 15.0%.

Revenue Forecast

ISRG Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $2.4B $2.9B $2.1B – $2.8B +1.0% ✗ Outside range
Q2 2026 $2.4B $2.0B – $3.0B +8.3%
Q3 2026 $2.5B $1.9B – $3.2B +0.7%
Q4 2026 $2.5B $1.9B – $3.3B -0.8%
Q1 2027 $2.5B $1.8B – $3.5B -12.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Intuitive Surgical, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 0.9988 -0.1% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 1.0463 +4.6% +4.6% above trend 17
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.9702 -3.0% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.0088 +0.9% In line with trend 17

How Spending Drives Revenue

ISRG Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (log-log) with 70 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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