Intuitive Surgical, Inc. ISRG

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. demonstrates strong revenue growth driven primarily by its investments in research and development and sales, general, and administrative expenses, with elasticities of 0.59% and 0.94%, respectively. Despite a forecasted revenue of $10 billion for the fiscal year, reflecting a slight decline of 1.6% year-over-year, the company's model accuracy shows potential for improvement, as evidenced by a 15% error in a recent holdout test. Investors should consider the effective ROI from increased spending in R&D and SG&A, which historically have contributed positively to revenue generation. Overall, while short-term challenges may exist, the long-term growth potential remains promising given the company's strategic focus on innovation and market expansion.

Next FY Revenue
$9.90B
-1.6% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.59x
SG&A Elasticity
0.94x
Model Accuracy
5.2% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2B vs the actual $3B — an error of 15.0%.

Revenue Forecast

ISRG Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $2B $3B $2B – $3B +1.0% ✗ Outside range
Q2 2026 $2B $2B – $3B +8.3%
Q3 2026 $2B $2B – $3B +0.7%
Q4 2026 $2B $2B – $3B -0.8%
Q1 2027 $3B $2B – $4B -12.0%

How Spending Drives Revenue

ISRG Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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