Humana Inc. HUM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 72 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-03-31

Humana Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.7B for the period ending 2026-03-31. The model projects $5.8B across the next four quarters (-5.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 28.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-03-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$5.84B
-5.5% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
2.19x
Training Fit
51.5% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2026): The model predicted $1.21B vs the actual $1.68B — an error of 28.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Humana Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($1.7B) came in 28% above the spending-based forecast ($1.2B). This suggests that Humana Inc.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

HUM Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2026
Period end 2026-03-31		 $1.21B $1.68B $248.5M–$5.86B -9.5% ✓ In range
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $1.26B $235.3M–$6.74B -10.1%
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $1.55B $253.4M–$9.46B -3.2%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.74B $240.3M–$12.62B +16.2%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $1.29B $160.8M–$10.34B -23.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Humana Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0443 +4.4% +4.4% above trend 17
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9973 -0.3% In line with trend 18
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9804 -2.0% In line with trend 18
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9117 -8.8% -8.8% below trend 18

Spending and Revenue

HUM Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 72 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.6175x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -28.0%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 72 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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