What is LLY's forecasted revenue?

Eli Lilly and Company is forecasted to generate $30.3B in FY revenue, representing +2.6% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the LLY revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 4.2% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $7.3B versus the actual $8.3B.

Eli Lilly and Company LLY

Revenue Intelligence Report • 60 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is predominantly driven by core product sales, with the latest quarterly revenue at about $8.31 billion and a 60-quarter data history underpinning the model. In this linear framework, every $1 of R&D spending translates to $2.64 of long-run revenue, while every $1 of SG&A yields $0.65, signaling R&D as the higher-ROI driver of growth. Model accuracy stands at 4.2% MAPE, but the holdout test produced a 12.5% error (predicted $7.3B vs actual $8.3B), flagging some forecasting risk. The FY revenue forecast is $30B, up 2.6% year over year, implying continued growth supported by R&D-driven upside despite the near-term miss.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (4.2% MAPE), suggesting Eli Lilly and Company's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $2.64 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $0.65 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$30.3B

+2.6% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$2.64 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$0.65 per $1

Model Accuracy

4.2% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $7.3B vs the actual $8.3B — an error of 12.5%.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q3 2023	$7.3B	$8.3B	$6.6B – $7.9B	+12.1%	✗ Outside range
Q4 2023	$7.3B		$6.3B – $8.2B	+4.7%
Q1 2024	$7.5B		$6.4B – $8.7B	+3.2%
Q2 2024	$7.7B		$6.3B – $9.0B	+10.1%
Q3 2024	$7.8B		$6.3B – $9.3B	-6.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Eli Lilly and Company's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	0.9956	-0.4%	In line with trend	14
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	0.9944	-0.6%	In line with trend	14
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.9898	-1.0%	In line with trend	14
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0132	+1.3%	In line with trend	14

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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