Medtronic Plc MDT
Revenue Intelligence Report • 36 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Medtronic Plc has a forecasted full-year revenue of $36B, a +3.5% year-over-year change, based on 36 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 1.04x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.0% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Medtronic Plc's revenue with exceptional precision (2.0% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.04x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$36.1B
+3.5% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.04x
Model Accuracy
2.0% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $8.7B vs the actual $9.0B — an error of 3.3%.
Note:
Medtronic Plc does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $8.7B | $9.0B | $8.3B – $9.2B | +3.8% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $8.8B | $8.2B – $9.5B | +6.4% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $8.9B | $8.2B – $9.8B | +4.3% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $9.1B | $8.2B – $10B | +1.3% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $9.2B | $8.2B – $10B | +2.1% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Medtronic Plc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0029 | +0.3% | In line with trend | 12 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0179 | +1.8% | In line with trend | 12 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 0 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9952 | -0.5% | In line with trend | 11 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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