What is RTX's forecasted revenue?

Rtx Corporation is forecasted to generate $82.0B in FY revenue, representing -7.5% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the RTX revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 7.5% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $22B versus the actual $24B.

Rtx Corporation RTX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Rtx Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $82B, a -7.5% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D ($27.32 per $1) and SG&A ($7.40 per $1). The ARDL model has 7.5% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (7.5% MAPE), suggesting Rtx Corporation's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $27.32 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $7.40 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$82.0B

-7.5% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$27.32 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$7.40 per $1

Model Accuracy

7.5% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $22B vs the actual $24B — an error of 9.2%.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$22B	$24B	$19B – $25B	+1.7%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$21B		$17B – $25B	+3.8%
Q3 2026	$21B		$16B – $25B	-4.2%
Q4 2026	$20B		$15B – $26B	-9.8%
Q1 2027	$20B		$14B – $26B	-17.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Rtx Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0227	+2.3%	In line with trend	17
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.0371	+3.7%	+3.7% above trend	17
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.9353	-6.5%	-6.5% below trend	16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0068	+0.7%	In line with trend	16

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

More in Industrials

BLDR PWR AOS IR LHX TXT IEX TDY