What is ABNB's forecasted revenue?

Airbnb, Inc. is forecasted to generate $13.3B in FY revenue, representing +8.6% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the ABNB revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 1.5% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $2.8B versus the actual $2.8B.

Airbnb, Inc. ABNB

Revenue Intelligence Report • 24 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Airbnb, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $13B, a +8.6% year-over-year change, based on 24 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D ($4.46 per $1) and SG&A ($2.74 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 1.5% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks Airbnb, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (1.5% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $4.46 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $2.74 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$13.3B

+8.6% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$4.46 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$2.74 per $1

Model Accuracy

1.5% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.8B vs the actual $2.8B — an error of 0.5%.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$2.8B	$2.8B	$2.7B – $2.9B	+12.6%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$2.3B		$2.1B – $2.5B	+1.2%
Q3 2026	$3.3B		$3.1B – $3.5B	+7.4%
Q4 2026	$4.6B		$4.4B – $4.8B	+11.7%
Q1 2027	$3.1B		$2.8B – $3.3B	+11.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Airbnb, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	0.9984	-0.2%	In line with trend	5
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	0.9975	-0.2%	In line with trend	5
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.9993	-0.1%	In line with trend	5
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	0.9965	-0.4%	In line with trend	5

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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