Allegion Plc ALLE
Revenue Intelligence Report • 52 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Allegion Plc has a forecasted full-year revenue of $4.4B, a +9.0% year-over-year change, based on 52 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($4.09 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.2% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.2% MAPE), suggesting Allegion Plc's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $4.09 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$4.43B
+9.0% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$4.09 per $1
Model Accuracy
3.2% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.1B vs the actual $1.0B — an error of 2.2%.
Note:
Allegion Plc does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | $1.0B | $1.0B – $1.1B | +11.6% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | $1.0B – $1.1B | +12.1% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | $1.0B – $1.2B | +6.9% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.1B | $1.0B – $1.2B | +6.0% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.1B | $1.0B – $1.3B | +11.3% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Allegion Plc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9973 | -0.3% | In line with trend | 12 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0028 | +0.3% | In line with trend | 12 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9924 | -0.8% | In line with trend | 12 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0397 | +4.0% | +4.0% above trend | 12 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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