Avery Dennison Corporation AVY
Revenue Intelligence Report • 11 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Avery Dennison Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $5.8B, a -2.9% year-over-year change, based on 11 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($0.03 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 1.7% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Avery Dennison Corporation's revenue with exceptional precision (1.7% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $0.03 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$5.81B
-2.9% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$-14.39 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$0.03 per $1
Model Accuracy
1.7% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.5B vs the actual $1.6B — an error of 3.1%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2013 | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.4B – $1.6B | +4.2% | ✓ In range |
| Q3 2013 | $1.5B | $1.4B – $1.5B | -2.6% | ||
| Q4 2013 | $1.5B | $1.4B – $1.6B | +1.0% | ||
| Q1 2014 | $1.5B | $1.3B – $1.6B | -3.1% | ||
| Q2 2014 | $1.4B | $1.3B – $1.6B | -6.7% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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