Baxter International Inc. BAX
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Baxter International Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $12B, a +7.8% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D ($5.08 per $1) and SG&A ($1.88 per $1). The ARDL model has 5.6% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.6% MAPE), suggesting Baxter International Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $5.08 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $1.88 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $2.9B | $3.0B | $2.5B – $3.3B | +4.8% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $2.9B | $2.4B – $3.5B | +12.2% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $3.0B | $2.3B – $3.7B | +7.0% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $3.1B | $2.3B – $3.9B | +7.7% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $3.1B | $2.2B – $4.0B | +4.8% |
Seasonal Factors
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0183 | +1.8% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0169 | +1.7% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9154 | -8.5% | -8.5% below trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.029 | +2.9% | In line with trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
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