Builders Firstsource, Inc. BLDR
Revenue Intelligence Report • 62 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Builders Firstsource, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $16B, a +3.9% year-over-year change, based on 62 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.96x). The ARDL model has 5.0% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.0% MAPE), suggesting Builders Firstsource, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.96x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$15.8B
+3.9% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.96x
Model Accuracy
5.0% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.6B vs the actual $3.4B — an error of 8.1%.
Note:
Builders Firstsource, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $3.6B | $3.4B | $3.2B – $4.1B | -5.0% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $3.9B | $3.2B – $4.6B | +5.7% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $4.1B | $3.3B – $5.1B | -3.6% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $3.9B | $3.1B – $5.1B | -0.1% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $3.9B | $2.9B – $5.2B | +15.9% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Builders Firstsource, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9754 | -2.5% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.991 | -0.9% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0019 | +0.2% | In line with trend | 14 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0543 | +5.4% | +5.4% above trend | 14 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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