Carrier Global Corporation CARR

Revenue Intelligence Report • 28 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

Carrier Global Corporation demonstrates a strong revenue growth model, driven primarily by strategic investments in research and development (R&D) and selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A), with elasticities of 0.48% and 0.60%, respectively. Despite a recent holdout test indicating a 10.8% prediction error, the company's model accuracy remains robust at 2.7% MAPE. For the upcoming fiscal year, Carrier is forecasting a revenue of $26 billion, reflecting a 19.5% year-over-year increase, suggesting a positive outlook for investors as the company effectively leverages its spending to enhance revenue growth.

Next FY Revenue

$25.98B

+19.5% YoY

R&D Elasticity

0.48x

SG&A Elasticity

0.59x

Model Accuracy

2.7% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $5B vs the actual $5B — an error of 10.8%.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$5B	$5B	$5B – $6B	+4.1%	✗ Outside range
Q2 2026	$6B		$6B – $7B	+20.1%
Q3 2026	$7B		$6B – $8B	+13.3%
Q4 2026	$6B		$6B – $7B	+15.6%
Q1 2027	$6B		$5B – $7B	+31.0%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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