Carrier Global Corporation CARR
Revenue Intelligence Report • 28 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Carrier Global Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $26B, a +19.5% year-over-year change, based on 28 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D (elasticity 0.46x) and SG&A (elasticity 0.59x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.7% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Carrier Global Corporation's revenue with exceptional precision (2.7% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. R&D investment shows a 0.46x multiplier — each 1% increase in R&D spend is associated with a 0.46% revenue increase, signaling strong innovation-to-revenue conversion. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.59x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $5.4B | $4.8B | $5.0B – $5.8B | +4.1% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q2 2026 | $6.3B | $5.6B – $7.0B | +20.1% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $6.9B | $6.1B – $7.9B | +13.3% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $6.4B | $5.6B – $7.5B | +15.6% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $6.3B | $5.4B – $7.5B | +31.0% |
Seasonal Factors
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0135 | +1.3% | In line with trend | 6 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9937 | -0.6% | In line with trend | 6 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0071 | +0.7% | In line with trend | 6 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0055 | +0.6% | In line with trend | 6 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
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