Colgate-Palmolive Company CL
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Colgate-Palmolive Company has a forecasted full-year revenue of $21B, a +3.0% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($2.01 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 1.3% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Colgate-Palmolive Company's revenue with exceptional precision (1.3% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $2.01 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$21.0B
+3.0% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$2.01 per $1
Model Accuracy
1.3% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $5.2B vs the actual $5.2B — an error of 1.3%.
Note:
Colgate-Palmolive Company does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $5.2B | $5.2B | $5.0B – $5.3B | +4.4% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $5.2B | $5.0B – $5.4B | +5.8% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $5.2B | $5.0B – $5.5B | +2.4% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $5.3B | $5.0B – $5.5B | +2.6% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $5.3B | $5.0B – $5.6B | +1.3% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Colgate-Palmolive Company's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0059 | +0.6% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9957 | -0.4% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9996 | -0.0% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0065 | +0.6% | In line with trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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