Costar Group, Inc. CSGP
Revenue Intelligence Report • 62 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Costar Group, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $4.0B, a +23.6% year-over-year change, based on 62 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($1.29 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.1% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Costar Group, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.1% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $1.29 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$4.01B
+23.6% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$1.29 per $1
Model Accuracy
2.1% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $0.9B vs the actual $0.9B — an error of 1.8%.
Note:
Costar Group, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $0.9B | $0.9B | $0.9B – $0.9B | +24.6% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q2 2026 | $0.9B | $0.9B – $1.0B | +27.0% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.0B | $1.0B – $1.0B | +25.2% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.0B | $1.0B – $1.1B | +23.3% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.1B | $1.0B – $1.1B | +19.7% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Costar Group, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9906 | -0.9% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9893 | -1.1% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9926 | -0.7% | In line with trend | 14 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0105 | +1.0% | In line with trend | 14 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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