Carvana Co. CVNA
Revenue Intelligence Report • 38 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Carvana Co. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $24B, a +15.9% year-over-year change, based on 38 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.88x). The ARDL model has 9.5% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 9.5% MAPE, the model captures Carvana Co.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.88x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$23.6B
+15.9% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.88x
Model Accuracy
9.5% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $5.6B vs the actual $5.6B — an error of 0.2%.
Note:
Carvana Co. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $5.6B | $5.6B | $4.5B – $7.0B | +58.3% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $5.7B | $4.2B – $7.7B | +34.8% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $5.8B | $4.0B – $8.4B | +20.2% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $5.9B | $3.9B – $9.1B | +5.2% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $6.1B | $3.8B – $9.8B | +8.6% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Carvana Co.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9364 | -6.4% | -6.4% below trend | 10 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9363 | -6.4% | -6.4% below trend | 9 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0556 | +5.6% | +5.6% above trend | 9 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0984 | +9.8% | +9.8% above trend | 9 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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