Electronic Arts Inc. EA
Revenue Intelligence Report • 54 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Electronic Arts Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $7.4B, a +1.0% year-over-year change, based on 54 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.27x). The ARDL model has 8.6% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 8.6% MAPE, the model captures Electronic Arts Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.27x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$7.37B
+1.0% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.27x
Model Accuracy
8.6% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.0B vs the actual $1.9B — an error of 3.5%.
Note:
Electronic Arts Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $2.0B | $1.9B | $1.6B – $2.5B | -2.9% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $1.8B | $1.3B – $2.4B | -5.5% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.9B | $1.3B – $2.7B | +11.1% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.9B | $1.2B – $3.0B | +3.1% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.8B | $1.1B – $3.0B | -3.4% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Electronic Arts Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9839 | -1.6% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9787 | -2.1% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 0 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.005 | +0.5% | In line with trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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