Emerson Electric Co. EMR
Revenue Intelligence Report • 53 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Emerson Electric Co. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $20B, a +15.2% year-over-year change, based on 53 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($2.42 per $1). The ARDL model has 6.4% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (6.4% MAPE), suggesting Emerson Electric Co.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $2.42 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$20.2B
+15.2% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$2.42 per $1
Model Accuracy
6.4% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $4.7B vs the actual $4.3B — an error of 8.1%.
Note:
Emerson Electric Co. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.7B | $4.3B | $3.9B – $5.5B | +7.2% | ✓ In range |
| Q4 2025 | $4.9B | $3.8B – $5.9B | +16.5% | ||
| Q1 2026 | $5.0B | $3.7B – $6.4B | +13.9% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $5.1B | $3.5B – $6.6B | +11.1% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $5.2B | $3.5B – $6.9B | +19.5% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Emerson Electric Co.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 0 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9753 | -2.5% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0238 | +2.4% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0193 | +1.9% | In line with trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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