Diamondback Energy, Inc. FANG
Revenue Intelligence Report • 42 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Diamondback Energy, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $18B, a +19.4% year-over-year change, based on 42 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($43.15 per $1). The ARDL model has 90.1% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 90.1% MAPE, the model captures Diamondback Energy, Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $43.15 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$17.9B
+19.4% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$43.15 per $1
Model Accuracy
90.1% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $4.0B vs the actual $3.4B — an error of 18.0%.
Note:
Diamondback Energy, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Investor insight:
Actual revenue ($3.4B) came in 18% below the spending-based forecast ($4.0B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $4.0B | $3.4B | $3.5B – $4.4B | +7.4% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q2 2026 | $4.1B | $3.5B – $4.7B | +0.7% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $4.3B | $3.6B – $5.1B | +17.9% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $4.7B | $3.8B – $5.5B | +18.8% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $4.9B | $3.9B – $5.8B | +44.1% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Diamondback Energy, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9722 | -2.8% | In line with trend | 10 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9704 | -3.0% | In line with trend | 10 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9727 | -2.7% | In line with trend | 9 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0548 | +5.5% | +5.5% above trend | 9 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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