Global Payments Inc. GPN
Revenue Intelligence Report • 56 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Global Payments Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $8.5B, a +10.8% year-over-year change, based on 56 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($1.96 per $1). The ARDL model has 31.1% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 31.1% MAPE, the model captures Global Payments Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $1.96 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$8.54B
+10.8% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$1.96 per $1
Model Accuracy
31.1% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.1B vs the actual $1.9B — an error of 10.3%.
Note:
Global Payments Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $2.1B | $1.9B | $1.7B – $2.6B | +10.3% | ✓ In range |
| Q1 2026 | $2.1B | $1.5B – $2.7B | +15.7% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $2.1B | $1.3B – $2.9B | +7.7% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | $1.3B – $3.1B | +7.3% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $2.2B | $1.2B – $3.2B | +13.0% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Global Payments Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0456 | +4.6% | +4.6% above trend | 15 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9828 | -1.7% | In line with trend | 13 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.1207 | +12.1% | +12.1% above trend | 10 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9801 | -2.0% | In line with trend | 14 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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