Automatic Data Processing, Inc. ADP

Revenue Intelligence Report • 68 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Automatic Data Processing, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $5.5B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $23.7B across the next four quarters (+8.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$23.7B
+8.2% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$4.65 per $1
Training Fit
2.3% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q4 FY2026): The model predicted $5.56B vs the actual $5.47B — an error of 1.7%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Automatic Data Processing, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

ADP Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $5.56B $5.47B $5.39B–$5.74B +8.5% ✓ In range
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-09-30		 $5.58B $5.34B–$5.83B +7.9%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-12-31		 $5.78B $5.47B–$6.08B +7.8%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $6.35B $6.00B–$6.70B +7.0%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $6.03B $5.64B–$6.42B +10.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Automatic Data Processing, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jul–Sep) 0.9982 -0.2% In line with trend 16
FQ2 (Oct–Dec) 0.9923 -0.8% In line with trend 16
FQ3 (Jan–Mar) 1.0013 +0.1% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Apr–Jun) 0.9942 -0.6% In line with trend 15

Spending and Revenue

ADP Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 68 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.0863x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 68 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

More in Fintech

FISV IBKR INTU PYPL FICO PAYX XYZ COIN