Coinbase Global, Inc. COIN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 26 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Coinbase Global, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.2B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $6.4B across the next four quarters (+1.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 44.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$6.38B
+1.5% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-1.23x
SG&A Elasticity
0.26x
Training Fit
13.6% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.76B vs the actual $1.22B — an error of 44.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($1.2B) came in 44% below the spending-based forecast ($1.8B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

COIN Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $1.76B $1.22B $1.27B–$2.44B +17.7% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $1.63B $1.03B–$2.60B -12.5%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.57B $892.6M–$2.77B -11.7%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $1.35B $703.4M–$2.60B -4.2%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $1.81B $872.4M–$3.77B +48.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Coinbase Global, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.1574 +15.7% +15.7% above trend 6
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9285 -7.1% -7.1% below trend 5
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9004 -10.0% -10.0% below trend 5
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0589 +5.9% +5.9% above trend 5

Spending and Revenue

COIN Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 26 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.2308x • R&D elasticity: -2.9966x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 26 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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