Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. IBKR

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $760M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $2.2B across the next four quarters (-21.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses Operating expense proxy data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 16.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and Operating expense proxy data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$2.15B
-21.2% YoY
Operating expense proxy Elasticity
0.71x
Training Fit
16.3% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $631.2M vs the actual $760.0M — an error of 16.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: The current filings use Operating expense proxy (NoninterestExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.
Note: Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($760M) came in 17% above the spending-based forecast ($631M). This suggests that Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

IBKR Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $631.2M $760.0M $414.0M–$962.4M +9.2% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $587.5M $323.6M–$1.07B -2.6%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $538.2M $259.2M–$1.12B -19.3%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $503.2M $216.5M–$1.17B -28.0%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $521.8M $203.2M–$1.34B -31.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0766 +7.7% +7.7% above trend 17
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9982 -0.2% In line with trend 16
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0546 +5.5% +5.5% above trend 17
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9647 -3.5% -3.5% below trend 17

Spending and Revenue

IBKR Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 69 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current Operating expense proxy elasticity: 0.6249x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 69 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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