What is PAYX's forecasted revenue?

Paychex, Inc. is forecasted to generate $8.07B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +26.3% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the PAYX revenue forecast model?

The model has 2.6% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.8B versus the actual $1.6B.

Paychex, Inc. PAYX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-31

Paychex, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.6B for the period ending 2026-08-31. The model projects $8.1B across the next four quarters (+26.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 14.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$8.07B

+26.3% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

0.84x

Training Fit

2.6% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2027): The model predicted $1.80B vs the actual $1.58B — an error of 14.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Paychex, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2026-08-31	$1.80B	$1.58B	$1.68B–$1.94B	+20.8%	✗ Outside range
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2026-11-30	$1.81B		$1.63B–$2.00B	+20.3%
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2027-02-28	$2.07B		$1.83B–$2.34B	+18.0%
Q4 FY2027 Period end 2027-05-31	$1.97B		$1.70B–$2.27B	+26.6%
Q1 FY2028 Period end 2027-08-31	$2.23B		$1.90B–$2.62B	+41.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Paychex, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jun–Aug)	1.0092	+0.9%	In line with trend	17
FQ2 (Sep–Nov)	1.0023	+0.2%	In line with trend	17
FQ3 (Dec–Feb)	1.0143	+1.4%	In line with trend	17
FQ4 (Mar–May)	0.9949	-0.5%	In line with trend	17

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.229x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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