Block, Inc. XYZ

Revenue Intelligence Report • 46 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Block, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $6.6B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $28.3B across the next four quarters (+13.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 7.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$28.3B
+13.2% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-0.98x
SG&A Elasticity
0.97x
Training Fit
6.8% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $6.11B vs the actual $6.62B — an error of 7.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

XYZ Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $6.11B $6.62B $4.97B–$7.53B +1.0% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $6.36B $4.74B–$8.54B +4.1%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $6.79B $4.73B–$9.73B +8.5%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $7.60B $5.02B–$11.53B +25.5%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $7.58B $4.76B–$12.08B +14.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Block, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9321 -6.8% -6.8% below trend 11
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0823 +8.2% +8.2% above trend 11
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9893 -1.1% In line with trend 11
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9651 -3.5% -3.5% below trend 11

Spending and Revenue

XYZ Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 46 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.4728x • R&D elasticity: -0.5962x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 46 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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