Paypal Holdings, Inc. PYPL

Revenue Intelligence Report • 48 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-03-31

Paypal Holdings, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $8.4B for the period ending 2026-03-31. The model projects $35.3B across the next four quarters (+4.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-03-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$35.3B
+4.7% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.58x
Training Fit
2.0% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2026): The model predicted $8.27B vs the actual $8.35B — an error of 1.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Paypal Holdings, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

PYPL Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2026
Period end 2026-03-31		 $8.27B $8.35B $7.87B–$8.68B +6.1% ✓ In range
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $8.70B $8.12B–$9.33B +5.0%
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $8.64B $7.94B–$9.41B +2.7%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $9.26B $8.39B–$10.22B +6.7%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $8.73B $7.82B–$9.74B +4.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Paypal Holdings, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9916 -0.8% In line with trend 10
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9939 -0.6% In line with trend 11
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0088 +0.9% In line with trend 11
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.019 +1.9% In line with trend 11

Spending and Revenue

PYPL Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 48 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.3114x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 48 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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