Fair Isaac Corp FICO

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Fair Isaac Corp's latest quarterly revenue is $674M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $2.8B across the next four quarters (+18.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 7.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$2.83B
+18.1% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-0.46x
SG&A Elasticity
0.73x
Training Fit
3.1% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $622.7M vs the actual $674.2M — an error of 7.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

FICO Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $622.7M $674.2M $575.0M–$674.3M +16.1% ✓ In range
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $627.7M $560.9M–$702.5M +21.7%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-12-31		 $637.5M $555.4M–$731.8M +24.5%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $818.6M $698.1M–$959.9M +18.4%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $743.6M $622.3M–$888.5M +10.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Fair Isaac Corp's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Oct–Dec) 0.9895 -1.0% In line with trend 16
FQ2 (Jan–Mar) 1.0023 +0.2% In line with trend 16
FQ3 (Apr–Jun) 0.9964 -0.4% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Jul–Sep) 1.0086 +0.9% In line with trend 16

Spending and Revenue

FICO Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 69 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.2398x • R&D elasticity: 0.5443x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 69 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

More in Fintech

FISV XYZ COIN PAYC GPN INTU IBKR PYPL