Global Payments Inc. GPN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 39 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Global Payments Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $3.3B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $13.1B across the next four quarters (+27.8% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 35.2%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$13.1B
+27.8% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$0.97 per $1
Training Fit
28.4% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $2.15B vs the actual $3.32B — an error of 35.2%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Global Payments Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($3.3B) came in 35% above the spending-based forecast ($2.2B). This suggests that Global Payments Inc.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

GPN Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $2.15B $3.32B $939.1M–$4.94B +9.3% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $1.96B $850.3M–$4.51B -2.5%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $2.37B $992.2M–$5.68B +22.8%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $5.83B $1.82B–$18.72B +96.3%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $2.91B $1.12B–$7.57B -12.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Global Payments Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9746 -2.5% In line with trend 10
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.1222 +12.2% +12.2% above trend 9
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0873 +8.7% +8.7% above trend 9
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0279 +2.8% In line with trend 10

Spending and Revenue

GPN Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 39 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 2.2261x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -35.2%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 39 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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