Garmin Ltd GRMN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 61 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Garmin Ltd has a forecasted full-year revenue of $7.4B, a +1.6% year-over-year change, based on 61 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D (elasticity 0.05x) and SG&A (elasticity 0.79x). The ARDL model has 9.8% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

At 9.8% MAPE, the model captures Garmin Ltd's broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. R&D investment shows a 0.05x multiplier — each 1% increase in R&D spend is associated with a 0.05% revenue increase, signaling strong innovation-to-revenue conversion. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.79x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$7.36B
+1.6% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.05x
SG&A Elasticity
0.79x
Model Accuracy
9.8% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.7B vs the actual $2.1B — an error of 21.4%.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($2.1B) came in 21% above the spending-based forecast ($1.7B). This suggests that Garmin Ltd's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

GRMN Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $1.7B $2.1B $1.3B – $2.1B -8.4% ✗ Outside range
Q1 2026 $1.8B $1.3B – $2.5B +18.9%
Q2 2026 $1.8B $1.2B – $2.8B +1.5%
Q3 2026 $1.8B $1.1B – $2.9B +2.1%
Q4 2026 $1.9B $1.1B – $3.2B -11.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Garmin Ltd's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.0283 +2.8% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 1.1814 +18.1% +18.1% above trend 8
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.904 -9.6% -9.6% below trend 16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.0522 +5.2% +5.2% above trend 17

How Spending Drives Revenue

GRMN Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (log-log) with 61 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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