W.w. Grainger, Inc. GWW
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
W.w. Grainger, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $18B, a +0.1% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.3% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks W.w. Grainger, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.3% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows.
Next FY Revenue
$18.0B
+0.1% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-3.53x
Model Accuracy
2.3% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $4.5B vs the actual $4.4B — an error of 2.6%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Note:
W.w. Grainger, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $4.5B | $4.4B | $4.3B – $4.8B | +7.3% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B | $4.2B – $4.9B | +5.9% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $4.6B | $4.2B – $5.0B | +0.8% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $4.4B | $4.0B – $4.9B | -4.8% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $4.4B | $3.9B – $4.9B | -1.1% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture W.w. Grainger, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0045 | +0.5% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9761 | -2.4% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0065 | +0.6% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0245 | +2.4% | In line with trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
Want this analysis for your portfolio?
I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.
Get in Touch