The Hershey Company HSY
Revenue Intelligence Report • 67 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
The Hershey Company has a forecasted full-year revenue of $12B, a -0.5% year-over-year change, based on 67 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.34x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.7% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.7% MAPE), suggesting The Hershey Company's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.34x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$11.6B
-0.5% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.34x
Model Accuracy
3.7% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.7B vs the actual $3.1B — an error of 11.8%.
Note:
The Hershey Company does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | $3.1B | $2.5B – $3.0B | -5.6% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q1 2026 | $2.9B | $2.6B – $3.4B | +4.7% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $2.8B | $2.4B – $3.3B | +6.6% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $3.1B | $2.6B – $3.7B | -2.6% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $2.8B | $2.3B – $3.5B | -9.2% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture The Hershey Company's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.011 | +1.1% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0036 | +0.4% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0099 | +1.0% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9998 | -0.0% | In line with trend | 15 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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