The Hershey Company HSY

Revenue Intelligence Report • 67 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

The Hershey Company demonstrates a strong correlation between its selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses and revenue growth, with a 1% increase in SG&A resulting in a 0.99% rise in revenue, indicating effective investment in these areas. Despite a recent holdout test revealing an 11.8% prediction error, the company maintains a manageable 3.7% mean absolute percentage error in its forecasting model. For the fiscal year, Hershey anticipates a slight revenue decline of 0.5% year-over-year, projecting $12 billion in revenue, which suggests a cautious outlook amidst competitive pressures. Investors should monitor the company's ability to leverage its SG&A spending for sustained revenue growth in a challenging market environment.

Next FY Revenue
$11.63B
-0.5% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.99x
Model Accuracy
3.7% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $3B vs the actual $3B — an error of 11.8%.
Note: The Hershey Company does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

HSY Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $3B $3B $2B – $3B -5.6% ✗ Outside range
Q1 2026 $3B $3B – $3B +4.7%
Q2 2026 $3B $2B – $3B +6.6%
Q3 2026 $3B $3B – $4B -2.6%
Q4 2026 $3B $2B – $3B -9.2%

How Spending Drives Revenue

HSY Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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