What is IR's forecasted revenue?

Ingersoll Rand Inc. is forecasted to generate $8.12B in FY revenue, representing +6.1% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the IR revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 10.1% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $2.0B versus the actual $2.1B.

Ingersoll Rand Inc. IR

Revenue Intelligence Report • 38 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is driven by strong ROI on SG&A spending, with each dollar of SG&A forecast to generate about $5.39 of long-run revenue. The most recent quarter posted $2.091 billion in revenue. The forecasting approach is linear, with an overall MAPE of 10.1% and a holdout error of 4.8% (2.0B predicted vs 2.1B actual), indicating reasonable forecast reliability. The full-year revenue outlook is $8.1 billion, up 6.1% year over year, signaling solid growth supported by operating efficiency.

Investment Thesis

At 10.1% MAPE, the model captures Ingersoll Rand Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $5.39 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$8.12B

+6.1% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$5.39 per $1

Model Accuracy

10.1% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.0B vs the actual $2.1B — an error of 4.8%.

Note: Ingersoll Rand Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$2.0B	$2.1B	$1.8B – $2.2B	+4.9%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$2.0B		$1.7B – $2.2B	+13.7%
Q3 2026	$2.0B		$1.7B – $2.3B	+8.2%
Q4 2026	$2.1B		$1.7B – $2.4B	+4.9%
Q1 2027	$2.1B		$1.7B – $2.5B	-0.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Ingersoll Rand Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0103	+1.0%	In line with trend	9
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.0455	+4.5%	+4.5% above trend	9
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.9952	-0.5%	In line with trend	8
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0263	+2.6%	In line with trend	8

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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