Coca Cola Co KO

Revenue Intelligence Report • 33 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is driven by selling, general and administrative spending, with an elasticity of 0.52 (a 1% SG&A increase associates with a 0.52% revenue rise), indicating a positive but modest ROI from marketing and distribution efforts. The model uses a log-log framework and achieves 2.4% MAPE, though a holdout forecast undershot by about 1B (11B predicted vs 12B actual, 10.7% error), signaling some near-term forecast uncertainty. The FY revenue forecast is 48B, down 0.9% year over year, implying a modest revenue pause despite continued brand strength and broad distribution. Outlook for investors suggests SG&A delivers positive but limited ROI, with revenue stabilizing in the high 40s billions; ongoing attention to pricing, product mix, and marketing intensity will be important to sustain top-line growth.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks Coca Cola Co's revenue with exceptional precision (2.4% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.52x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$47.5B
-0.9% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.52x
Model Accuracy
2.4% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $11B vs the actual $12B — an error of 10.7%.
Note: Coca Cola Co does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

KO Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $11B $12B $9.9B – $11B -8.6% ✗ Outside range
Q1 2026 $12B $11B – $13B +7.5%
Q2 2026 $13B $12B – $15B +4.1%
Q3 2026 $12B $10B – $13B -4.7%
Q4 2026 $11B $9.3B – $12B -10.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Coca Cola Co's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 0.9926 -0.7% In line with trend 7
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 0.9918 -0.8% In line with trend 8
FQ3 (Mar–May) 1.0072 +0.7% In line with trend 7
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.0055 +0.5% In line with trend 7

How Spending Drives Revenue

KO Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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