Lyondellbasell Industries N.v. LYB
Revenue Intelligence Report • 60 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Lyondellbasell Industries N.v. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $34B, a +14.1% year-over-year change, based on 60 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D ($198.34 per $1). The ARDL model has 13.8% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 13.8% MAPE, the model captures Lyondellbasell Industries N.v.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $198.34 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation.
Next FY Revenue
$34.4B
+14.1% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$198.34 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$-8.10 per $1
Model Accuracy
13.8% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $7.7B vs the actual $7.1B — an error of 8.2%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $7.7B | $7.1B | $4.9B – $10B | -1.7% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $8.4B | $4.5B – $12B | +9.1% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $8.6B | $3.8B – $13B | +11.9% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $8.7B | $3.2B – $14B | +12.5% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $8.8B | $2.6B – $15B | +23.8% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Lyondellbasell Industries N.v.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0224 | +2.2% | In line with trend | 14 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9578 | -4.2% | -4.2% below trend | 14 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0122 | +1.2% | In line with trend | 14 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9988 | -0.1% | In line with trend | 14 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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