Mckesson Corporation MCK
Revenue Intelligence Report • 18 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Mckesson Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $499B, a +24.0% year-over-year change, based on 18 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($25.67 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.0% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Mckesson Corporation's revenue with exceptional precision (2.0% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $25.67 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$499.0B
+24.0% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$25.67 per $1
Model Accuracy
2.0% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $107B vs the actual $106B — an error of 1.0%.
Note:
Mckesson Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $107B | $106B | $108B – $116B | +14.4% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q2 2026 | $114B | $108B – $120B | +19.7% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $122B | $115B – $130B | +25.1% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $128B | $120B – $138B | +24.0% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $135B | $126B – $146B | +26.8% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Mckesson Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9904 | -1.0% | In line with trend | 5 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9926 | -0.7% | In line with trend | 5 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 0 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0022 | +0.2% | In line with trend | 5 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
Spending Efficiency Over Time
Time-varying analysis:
A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks how the link between spending and revenue has evolved over 18 quarters.
A rising multiplier means each dollar of spending drives more revenue over time, signaling improving efficiency. A falling multiplier can indicate market saturation or rising cost-to-acquire.
Current SG&A multiplier: 0.1838
Current SG&A multiplier: 0.1838
Enhanced forecast:
The time-varying model (GAM) outperformed the fixed-coefficient ARDL on holdout validation
(1.0% error vs ARDL, R² = 0.981),
so this report uses the GAM for its quarterly forecasts.
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