Moody’s Corporation MCO
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Moody’s Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $8.1B, a +5.1% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($2.18 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 4.8% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (4.8% MAPE), suggesting Moody’s Corporation's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $2.18 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$8.11B
+5.1% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$2.18 per $1
Model Accuracy
4.8% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.9B vs the actual $1.9B — an error of 2.3%.
Note:
Moody’s Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.9B | $1.9B | $1.8B – $2.1B | +15.6% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $2.0B | $1.8B – $2.2B | +3.5% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $2.0B | $1.7B – $2.2B | +5.1% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $2.1B | $1.8B – $2.3B | +2.6% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $2.1B | $1.7B – $2.4B | +9.2% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Moody’s Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9725 | -2.8% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9883 | -1.2% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0192 | +1.9% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0307 | +3.1% | +3.1% above trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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