Mgm Resorts International MGM
Revenue Intelligence Report • 19 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Mgm Resorts International has a forecasted full-year revenue of $9.4B, a +1.9% year-over-year change, based on 19 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.6% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Mgm Resorts International's revenue with exceptional precision (2.6% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows.
Next FY Revenue
$9.38B
+1.9% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-0.43x
Model Accuracy
2.6% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.3B vs the actual $2.5B — an error of 9.5%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Note:
Mgm Resorts International does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2016 | $2.3B | $2.5B | $2.1B – $2.4B | +0.0% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q4 2016 | $2.3B | $2.1B – $2.5B | +5.4% | ||
| Q1 2017 | $2.3B | $2.1B – $2.6B | +5.4% | ||
| Q3 2017 | $2.4B | $2.1B – $2.7B | +3.6% | ||
| Q3 2017 | $2.4B | $2.1B – $2.7B | -5.7% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Mgm Resorts International's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9673 | -3.3% | -3.3% below trend | 5 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0117 | +1.2% | In line with trend | 4 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0136 | +1.4% | In line with trend | 4 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9959 | -0.4% | In line with trend | 5 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
Want this analysis for your portfolio?
I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.
Get in Touch