Motorola Solutions, Inc. MSI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Motorola Solutions, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $12B, a +2.7% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D ($11.55 per $1) and SG&A ($10.14 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.3% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.3% MAPE), suggesting Motorola Solutions, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $11.55 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $10.14 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue
$12.0B
+2.7% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$11.55 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$10.14 per $1
Model Accuracy
3.3% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.0B vs the actual $3.4B — an error of 10.2%.

Revenue Forecast

MSI Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $3.0B $3.4B $2.9B – $3.2B +0.9% ✗ Outside range
Q1 2026 $2.7B $2.5B – $3.0B +7.9%
Q2 2026 $3.0B $2.7B – $3.2B +6.9%
Q3 2026 $3.1B $2.8B – $3.5B +4.1%
Q4 2026 $3.2B $2.8B – $3.5B -5.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Motorola Solutions, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.0049 +0.5% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 0.9929 -0.7% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.9898 -1.0% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 0.9985 -0.2% In line with trend 16

How Spending Drives Revenue

MSI Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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