Netflix Inc NFLX
Revenue Intelligence Report • 8 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Netflix Inc has a forecasted full-year revenue of $55B, a +22.3% year-over-year change, based on 8 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 0.5% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Netflix Inc's revenue with exceptional precision (0.5% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows.
Next FY Revenue
$55.3B
+22.3% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-0.36x
Model Accuracy
0.5% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $12B vs the actual $12B — an error of 0.1%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Note:
Netflix Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $12B | $12B | $12B – $12B | +17.5% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $13B | $12B – $13B | +20.0% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $13B | $13B – $14B | +20.5% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $14B | $14B – $15B | +23.1% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $15B | $15B – $16B | +25.4% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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