News Corporation NWSA
Revenue Intelligence Report • 41 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
News Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $8.7B, a -0.6% year-over-year change, based on 41 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($0.90 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.9% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.9% MAPE), suggesting News Corporation's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $0.90 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$8.70B
-0.6% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$0.90 per $1
Model Accuracy
3.9% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.3B vs the actual $2.4B — an error of 3.0%.
Note:
News Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $2.3B | $2.4B | $2.1B – $2.5B | +9.3% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $2.1B | $1.8B – $2.5B | -4.3% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $2.1B | $1.8B – $2.5B | +6.9% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $2.2B | $1.8B – $2.7B | +4.7% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $2.2B | $1.7B – $2.7B | -8.3% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture News Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0204 | +2.0% | In line with trend | 12 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0165 | +1.7% | In line with trend | 13 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9919 | -0.8% | In line with trend | 12 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 0 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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