Occidental Petroleum Corp /De/ OXY
Revenue Intelligence Report • 28 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Occidental Petroleum Corp /De/ has a forecasted full-year revenue of $17B, a -23.4% year-over-year change, based on 28 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model has 20.8% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 20.8% MAPE, the model captures Occidental Petroleum Corp /De/'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors.
Next FY Revenue
$16.5B
-23.4% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-3.61x
Model Accuracy
20.8% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.3B vs the actual $1.8B — an error of 90.4%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Note:
Occidental Petroleum Corp /De/ does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Investor insight:
Actual revenue ($1.8B) came in 90% below the spending-based forecast ($3.3B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $3.3B | $1.8B | $2.0B – $5.6B | +62.4% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q2 2026 | $4.8B | $2.3B – $9.9B | -29.8% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $4.2B | $1.7B – $10B | -35.2% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $4.6B | $1.6B – $13B | -31.1% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $3.0B | $1.0B – $9.7B | +73.6% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Occidental Petroleum Corp /De/'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.1315 | +13.2% | +13.2% above trend | 6 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.904 | -9.6% | -9.6% below trend | 6 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0376 | +3.8% | +3.8% above trend | 6 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.2293 | +22.9% | +22.9% above trend | 6 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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