Occidental Petroleum Corp /De/ OXY

Revenue Intelligence Report • 28 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

Occidental Petroleum Corp's revenue is significantly influenced by its SG&A expenditures, with a 1% increase leading to a notable 6.75% decrease in revenue, indicating a negative elasticity that highlights the importance of cost management. The company's latest quarterly revenue of $1.658 billion reflects ongoing challenges, as evidenced by a substantial forecasted decline of 24.6% year-over-year to $16 billion for the fiscal year. Despite the model's accuracy issues, with a holdout test revealing an 86.9% prediction error, investors should remain cautious about the ROI of spending in this environment. Overall, the outlook suggests a need for strategic adjustments to improve revenue stability and growth potential.

Next FY Revenue
$16.26B
-24.6% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-6.75x
Model Accuracy
18.6% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $3B vs the actual $2B — an error of 86.9%.
⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Note: Occidental Petroleum Corp /De/ does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($2B) came in 87% below the spending-based forecast ($3B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

OXY Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $3B $2B $2B – $5B +43.7% ✗ Outside range
Q2 2026 $5B $2B – $9B -30.6%
Q3 2026 $4B $2B – $9B -35.4%
Q4 2026 $5B $2B – $12B -29.9%
Q1 2027 $3B $1B – $8B +62.7%

How Spending Drives Revenue

OXY Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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