Pepsico, Inc. PEP
Revenue Intelligence Report • 67 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Pepsico, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $84B, a -10.3% year-over-year change, based on 67 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.90x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.2% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Pepsico, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.2% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.90x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$84.2B
-10.3% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.90x
Model Accuracy
2.2% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $21B vs the actual $29B — an error of 28.6%.
Note:
Pepsico, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Investor insight:
Actual revenue ($29B) came in 29% above the spending-based forecast ($21B). This suggests that Pepsico, Inc.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $21B | $29B | $20B – $22B | -24.6% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q1 2026 | $21B | $19B – $23B | +18.0% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $22B | $20B – $24B | -5.1% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $21B | $19B – $24B | -12.4% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $21B | $18B – $23B | -30.0% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Pepsico, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9965 | -0.3% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0047 | +0.5% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9917 | -0.8% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0034 | +0.3% | In line with trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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