Insulet Corporation PODD

Revenue Intelligence Report • 38 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Insulet Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $1.0B, a +39.0% year-over-year change, based on 38 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D ($3.58 per $1) and SG&A ($2.07 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.8% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.8% MAPE), suggesting Insulet Corporation's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $3.58 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $2.07 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue
$1.03B
+39.0% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$3.58 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$2.07 per $1
Model Accuracy
3.8% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $223B vs the actual $209B — an error of 6.5%.

Revenue Forecast

PODD Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2019 $223B $209B $215B – $231B +35.2% ✗ Outside range
Q2 2020 $243B $232B – $253B +52.0%
Q3 2020 $250B $237B – $263B +41.2%
Q4 2020 $255B $240B – $271B +32.9%
Q1 2021 $278B $261B – $295B +32.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Insulet Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.0137 +1.4% In line with trend 9
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 1.0012 +0.1% In line with trend 9
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.9999 -0.0% In line with trend 8
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 0.9998 -0.0% In line with trend 8

How Spending Drives Revenue

PODD Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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