Phillips 66 PSX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 60 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

In our econometric model, PSX's FY revenue of $128B, down 3.7% YoY, looks driven by softer demand and margin compression rather than a pure volume decline. Elasticities imply growth hinges on throughput and margins rather than price, with SG&A efficiency of $3.93 of revenue per $1 of SG&A signaling a cost base that can support margin expansion as volumes recover. The holdout forecast of $32.9B versus $34.1B actual (~3.7% error) and an 11.7% MAPE suggest the model is reasonably reliable but not precise in a volatile refining cycle. Risks include cyclical demand and crack-price shifts that can waver utilization; a rebound in throughput and/or spreads is needed to lift earnings, while capex and regulatory dynamics could tilt the growth path.

Investment Thesis

At 11.7% MAPE, the model captures Phillips 66's broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $3.93 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue
$127.5B
-3.7% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$3.93 per $1
Model Accuracy
11.7% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $33B vs the actual $34B — an error of 3.7%.
Note: Phillips 66 does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

PSX Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $33B $34B $25B – $41B -2.5% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $31B $20B – $43B +3.4%
Q3 2026 $32B $18B – $46B -5.0%
Q4 2026 $32B $16B – $48B -6.8%
Q1 2027 $32B $14B – $50B -5.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Phillips 66's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 0.9729 -2.7% In line with trend 14
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 1.0299 +3.0% In line with trend 14
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.9685 -3.1% -3.1% below trend 14
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.1367 +13.7% +13.7% above trend 14

How Spending Drives Revenue

PSX Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (linear) with 60 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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