Paypal Holdings, Inc. PYPL

Revenue Intelligence Report • 18 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

PayPal Holdings, Inc. demonstrates strong revenue growth driven by strategic investments in research and development (R&D) and selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses, with elasticities of 0.48% and 0.91%, respectively. The company's latest quarterly revenue of $4.226 billion reflects effective spending, although a holdout test indicated a slight prediction error of 5.8%. With a fiscal year forecast of $18 billion, representing an 18.2% year-over-year increase, the outlook remains positive, suggesting continued ROI from its operational expenditures. Investors can expect sustained growth as PayPal leverages its spending to enhance revenue performance.

Next FY Revenue
$18.26B
+18.2% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.48x
SG&A Elasticity
0.91x
Model Accuracy
1.0% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $4B vs the actual $4B — an error of 5.8%.

Revenue Forecast

PYPL Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2018 $4B $4B $4B – $4B +6.3% ✗ Outside range
Q2 2019 $4B $4B – $4B +18.0%
Q3 2019 $5B $4B – $5B +16.9%
Q4 2019 $5B $4B – $5B +25.2%
Q1 2020 $5B $5B – $5B +13.3%

How Spending Drives Revenue

PYPL Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (log-log) with 18 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.