Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. SWK
Revenue Intelligence Report • 58 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $16B, a +4.9% year-over-year change, based on 58 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($6.67 per $1). The ARDL model has 119.8% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 119.8% MAPE, the model captures Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $6.67 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$15.9B
+4.9% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$6.67 per $1
Model Accuracy
119.8% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.9B vs the actual $3.7B — an error of 5.3%.
Note:
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $3.9B | $3.7B | $3.1B – $4.6B | +4.3% | ✓ In range |
| Q1 2026 | $4.0B | $2.9B – $5.0B | +5.7% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $4.1B | $2.8B – $5.4B | +3.1% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $3.9B | $2.4B – $5.4B | +4.1% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $3.9B | $2.3B – $5.6B | +6.8% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0185 | +1.9% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0027 | +0.3% | In line with trend | 8 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0006 | +0.1% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.045 | +4.5% | +4.5% above trend | 15 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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